U.S. tariff policy remains at the center of international trade discussions in 2026. After the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that part of the tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump’s administration under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were unlawful, the U.S. government has already refunded approximately $81 billion to companies that had paid surtaxes on imported goods.
In addition to representing one of the largest tax refunds in recent U.S. history, the case creates new challenges for companies that import, export, or maintain international operations. For organizations with a presence in the U.S. market, the current environment requires close attention to regulatory changes, tax implications, and strategic planning opportunities.
What Led to the Tariff Refunds?
In April 2025, the U.S. government announced a broad package of tariffs on imports from several trading partners, justifying the measure under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), a law enacted in 1977 that grants the President emergency powers during national emergencies.
However, in February 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court concluded that the IEEPA did not provide the authority to establish this tariff regime. As a result, the federal government was required to begin reimbursing importers for the tariffs that had been unlawfully collected.
According to the U.S. Department of the Treasury, between the beginning of fiscal year 2026 (October 2025) and July 2026, approximately $81 billion had already been refunded to eligible companies, with the largest payments occurring between May and June.
The Impact on U.S. Public Finances
The refunds had an immediate effect on federal finances.
In June 2026 alone:
- The U.S. government collected approximately $23.6 billion in tariff revenue;
- Refunded approximately $49.2 billion to importers;
- Recorded a net outflow of $25.6 billion related to tariffs.
This contributed to a monthly federal budget deficit of approximately $120 billion, while the cumulative fiscal year deficit reached roughly $1.367 trillion. Beyond the refunds themselves, rising interest payments on the national debt also continued to pressure the federal budget.
Is the Matter Settled? Not Yet.
Although the Supreme Court invalidated tariffs imposed under the IEEPA, this does not mark the end of U.S. tariff policy.
Following the Court’s decision, the administration began relying on other legal authorities available under U.S. trade law, including Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, to temporarily maintain certain tariffs while developing new trade strategies. At the same time, the administration continues to conduct investigations that may lead to additional tariffs targeting specific countries and industries.
In practice, this means the regulatory environment remains highly dynamic, requiring companies engaged in international business to continuously monitor developments.
Which Companies May Be Affected?
The issue extends well beyond U.S. importers.
Foreign companies with subsidiaries, distribution centers, or commercial operations in the United States may also face significant impacts, particularly if they:
- Import goods directly into the U.S. market;
- Rely on global supply chains;
- Operate under international supply agreements;
- Maintain tax structures involving multiple jurisdictions.
In many cases, businesses may need to reassess contracts, logistics costs, pricing strategies, and tax planning to reflect the evolving regulatory landscape.
Opportunities for International Businesses
Despite the legal uncertainty created by frequent policy changes, the current environment also presents valuable opportunities.
Tax Structure Review
Companies can reassess their corporate and tax structures to identify efficiencies under the new regulatory framework.
Recovery of Previously Paid Tariffs
Organizations that paid tariffs later deemed unlawful should determine whether they qualify for refunds and identify the administrative procedures required to recover those amounts.
Import Planning
With the possibility of future tariff changes, businesses should carefully evaluate product sourcing, applicable trade agreements, and tariff classifications.
Regulatory Risk Management
The case underscores the importance of continuously monitoring legislative developments, judicial decisions, and U.S. trade policy changes.
What Should Companies Do Now?
Regardless of industry, companies with international operations should consider taking the following proactive measures:
- Review their import and export supply chains;
- Confirm whether they paid tariffs that were subsequently ruled unlawful;
- Evaluate opportunities to recover overpaid amounts;
- Update financial forecasts to account for potential tariff changes;
- Review international contracts to address future regulatory developments;
- Strengthen tax and customs compliance programs.
An integrated approach involving legal, tax, accounting, and international trade professionals can significantly reduce risk while improving an organization’s ability to adapt to an increasingly dynamic regulatory environment.
What to Expect in the Coming Months
Experts estimate that total tariff refunds could eventually exceed $175 billion if all eligible claims are processed. At the same time, the U.S. administration continues to pursue alternative legal mechanisms to preserve trade protection measures, suggesting that additional regulatory and judicial disputes may still emerge.
For global companies, this means U.S. trade policy will remain a strategic risk management issue requiring continuous monitoring and long-term planning.
Conclusion
The refund of $81 billion in tariffs represents a landmark moment in U.S. trade policy and demonstrates how judicial decisions can dramatically reshape the business environment.
For companies operating internationally, this case reinforces the importance of maintaining corporate and tax structures capable of responding quickly to regulatory changes, reducing risk while taking advantage of opportunities to recover credits and improve operational efficiency.
Drummond Advisors closely monitors legislative, tax, and trade developments in the United States, helping global companies structure operations, review tax strategies, maintain international compliance, and expand successfully into the U.S. market.
Do you believe your company may be eligible for a tariff refund? Contact our team through the chat available on our website or email us at info@drummondadvisors.com.
Written by Marcos Ferreira, Content Analyst at Drummond Advisors.
Sources
- Reuters – Tariff refunds push US June budget deficit to $120 billion
- Thomson Reuters Institute – Supreme Court’s tariff decision: What’s next for businesses and how to plan
- Penn Wharton Budget Model (estimate cited by Reuters)
- U.S. Department of the Treasury – Monthly Treasury Statement
- Globo – Após derrota na Suprema Corte, governo Trump já devolveu US$ 81 bilhões em tarifas
